The CBI retail sales survey for October shows sales still falling, but at the slowest pace since April 2025. For a shop owner deciding how much Christmas stock to fund, that is a reason to plan carefully, not to over-order.
01What the CBI retail sales survey found
According to the CBI's Distributive Trades Survey, published on 26 October, retail sales volumes fell in the year to October. The weighted balance was -10%, up from -55% in September.
Retailers judged October's sales broadly average for the time of year. That is the first time since May 2024. The balance was -3%, up from -40% in September.
Orders placed with suppliers also fell more slowly. That balance was -36%, after a record-fast drop of -62% in September.
02Still falling, just more slowly
Is this good news? Partly. The fall is easing, but sales are still lower than a year ago.
Retailers expect sales to fall at the same pace in November. They also expect November's sales to come in below what is normal for the time of year.
The CBI's lead economist, Martin Sartorius, said the outlook remains fragile. He pointed to cautious household spending and higher fuel costs.
Stock levels moved back to around normal in October. Retailers expect them to ease again in November.
03Funding Christmas stock without over-ordering
For many shops, the money for Christmas stock goes out weeks before the tills get busy. A slower fall in sales does not change that gap.
Start with your own figures, not the national ones. What did you sell last December, and how much stock was left in January?
Then fund the order you can realistically sell. Our guide on how stock finance works explains when it beats an overdraft. A 13-week cash flow forecast shows the weeks when cash is tightest.
If the gap is bigger than your overdraft can carry, talk to us about growth finance before you place the order.
