Only 17% of UK firms plan to raise investment this year. That is the lowest share since the pandemic, and it means most of your competitors are standing still.
The figure comes from the British Chambers of Commerce economic forecast, published on 2 September 2026.
01What the forecast says
According to the British Chambers of Commerce, GDP is expected to grow by 1.0% in 2026. That is a small upgrade on its previous forecast of 0.9%. Business investment is still expected to fall by 0.2% this year.
Inflation is forecast to peak at 3.6% in the final quarter of 2026. The BCC assumes the Bank of England base rate stays at 3.75% for the next two years. Unemployment is expected to end 2026 at 5.0%.
02The cost line under the headline
According to the British Chambers of Commerce, a typical small business now carries a domestic cost base more than 70% higher than in 2016. That is the part of your costs set by policy rather than by suppliers.
Wages, employer contributions, business rates and compliance all sit inside that figure. None of them fall when demand picks up. So a recovery does not fix a cost problem on its own.
03What it means for a growth plan
A quiet market is a cheaper market. Suppliers have capacity, and good staff are easier to reach. That window closes when the firms who did invest arrive first.
The risk runs the other way as well. Borrowing into a soft market is real, and a plan that only works if demand recovers is not ready. The test is whether the numbers work at today's revenue.
We have set out how to think about funding a move in our guide, Funding growth in 2026 when most firms are holding back.
